EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at MVP x DTR Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Fire Rile

60.0%

51.6% share · 60 matches

3.2% share · 10 matches

3.2% share · 7 matches

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Fire Aggro	1	3.2%	10	100.0%	70.6%	72.8%	63.2%	1513	↑ top
2	Fire Rile	16	51.6%	60	64.2%	59.5%	60.0%	56.9%	1373	↑ top
3	Fire Firebloom Burn	1	3.2%	7	71.4%	60.5%	55.9%	55.0%	1264	—
4	Fire Crux Mage	2	6.5%	13	61.5%	49.3%	53.8%	48.3%	1502	↑ top
5	Fire Luxem Assassin	2	6.5%	11	45.5%	46.9%	50.3%	50.7%	1393	↑ top
6	Horse and Taxes	1	3.2%	6	66.7%	63.1%	46.7%	50.2%	1383	↑ top
7	Fire Oblation	2	6.5%	11	40.9%	46.3%	46.1%	50.2%	1308	—
8	Fire Suited	1	3.2%	7	35.7%	43.4%	44.6%	46.5%	1350	—
9	Water Aetherwing	1	3.2%	6	50.0%	46.8%	44.4%	43.5%	1461	↑ top
10	Wind Razorgale	1	3.2%	6	33.3%	43.0%	43.7%	45.7%	1124	↓ low
11	Slimes	1	3.2%	7	28.6%	44.6%	43.4%	47.6%	1196	↓ low
12	Fire Astra Ranger	1	3.2%	6	33.3%	45.9%	43.1%	44.4%	1212	↓ low
13	Wind Seiryuu	3	9.7%	22	47.7%	46.2%	42.6%	43.2%	1290	—
14	Fire Umbra Guardian	1	3.2%	6	33.3%	47.4%	40.5%	46.2%	1131	↓ low
15	Wind Shadowstrike	3	9.7%	17	29.4%	46.6%	40.1%	48.0%	1183	↓ low
16	Water Allies	2	6.5%	11	18.2%	24.9%	37.0%	37.9%	1298	—
17	Fire Suzaku	3	9.7%	16	31.2%	41.0%	33.8%	38.2%	1248	↓ low