Fire ExiaTier 2
at 9/7DTR Store Champion
decks
2
(8.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
4-4-2
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.1%
avg ELO -1.8 per match
expected value
49.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1192
· median 1192
· range 1147–1237
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1009
Q1 1223
Q3 1352
1523
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 56.0% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 42.1% | -5.0 |
| Fire Suited | 20.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.7% | +14.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.6% | -21.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
| Water Allies | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Exia decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
