Fire RileTier 1
at 9/7DTR Store Champion
decks
14
(56.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
54
28-20-6
overall winrate
57.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.5%
avg ELO +2.9 per match
expected value
55.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1251
· median 1254
· range 1147–1392
(14 pilots with an ELO rating)
1009
Q1 1223
Q3 1352
1523
7% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
29% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suited | 20.0% | 10 | 8-2-0 | 80.0% | 71.4% | 74.6% | +11.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.0% | 8 | 2-5-1 | 31.2% | 37.5% | 40.0% | -4.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.0% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 43.9% | -3.1 |
| Fire Exia | 8.0% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 57.9% | +5.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.1% | +5.8 |
| Horse and Taxes | 8.0% | 6 | 4-1-1 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 53.0% | +1.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 8.0% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 56.1% | +3.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.7% | +2.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.2% | -4.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.5% | +7.2 |
| Water Allies | 4.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.4% | +6.1 |
| Wind Lorraine | 4.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.7% | +16.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.4% | -3.4 |
Decklists · 14 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 17 mirror matches (3 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 4 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Incapacitate, Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge, Arondight, Azure Blade. Losers more often ran: Fast Cure, Fire Resonance Bauble, Smoke Bombs.
Incapacitate
Winning decks ran 2.6
copies on average,
losing decks 1.4.
Of 17 mirrors: the winner ran more in
11, the loser ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 2.
Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge
Winning decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.1.
Of 17 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 10.
Arondight, Azure Blade
Winning decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.1.
Of 17 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 10.
Spirit Blade: Ensoul
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 17 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 8.
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Winning decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 17 mirrors: the winner ran more in
9, the loser ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 4.
Stalwart Shieldmate
Winning decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
losing decks 1.1.
Of 17 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 8.
Fast Cure
Losing decks ran 1.9
copies on average,
winning decks 1.1.
Of 17 mirrors: the loser ran more in
9, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 5.
Fire Resonance Bauble
Losing decks ran 0.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 17 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 11.
Smoke Bombs
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 17 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 9.
Fiery Interference
Losing decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 17 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 9.
Censer of Restful Peace
Losing decks ran 0.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 17 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 11.
Impact Hammer
Losing decks ran 0.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 17 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 11.
Show all 156 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 136 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incapacitate | +0.41 | 11 | 4 | 1 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.35 | 3 | 9 | 0 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | +0.29 | 6 | 1 | 1 | |
| Arondight, Azure Blade | +0.29 | 6 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | +0.29 | 7 | 2 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.29 | 9 | 4 | 3 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.29 | 7 | 2 | 3 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.29 | 7 | 2 | 1 | |
| Votive Runeblade | +0.29 | 6 | 1 | 3 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.24 | 9 | 5 | 3 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.24 | 1 | 5 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.24 | 2 | 6 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.24 | 2 | 6 | 1 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.24 | 1 | 5 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.24 | 9 | 5 | 1 | |
| Impact Hammer | -0.24 | 1 | 5 | 0 | |
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | -0.18 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.18 | 7 | 4 | 3 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.18 | 8 | 5 | 4 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.18 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | -0.18 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -0.18 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | +0.18 | 6 | 3 | 3 | |
| Beastsoul Visage | -0.18 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -0.18 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Sparks | -0.18 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | -0.18 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.18 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | -0.18 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.18 | 8 | 5 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.18 | 6 | 3 | 3 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.18 | 6 | 3 | 6 | |
| Searing Rebuke | -0.18 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.18 | 3 | 6 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | -0.18 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.18 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +0.18 | 6 | 3 | 3 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | -0.18 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.18 | 7 | 4 | 3 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | -0.18 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.18 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +0.18 | 7 | 4 | 0 | |
| Insignia of the Corhazi | +0.18 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | +0.18 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Luxera's Map | +0.18 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.18 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.18 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +0.18 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gleaming Cut | +0.18 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Luxem Sight | +0.18 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lightweaver's Assault | +0.18 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.18 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Zander, Blinding Steel | +0.18 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | +0.18 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.18 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.12 | 2 | 0 | 15 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.12 | 5 | 3 | 9 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | |
| Cinder Geyser | -0.12 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.12 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.12 | 6 | 4 | 4 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.12 | 3 | 5 | 5 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.12 | 6 | 4 | 3 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.12 | 6 | 4 | 3 | |
| Beastbond Ears | -0.12 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.12 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -0.12 | 3 | 5 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.12 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | -0.12 | 3 | 5 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -0.12 | 3 | 5 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +0.12 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.12 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Striking Illuminance | +0.12 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -0.12 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.12 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.06 | 8 | 7 | 2 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.06 | 3 | 4 | 7 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 16 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -0.06 | 4 | 5 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 16 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.06 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.06 | 6 | 5 | 1 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.06 | 5 | 4 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.06 | 5 | 4 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.06 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.06 | 4 | 5 | 5 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.06 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| Jin, Zealous Maverick | -0.06 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Proof of Life | -0.06 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | -0.06 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Jin, Fate Defiant | -0.06 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Enrage | -0.06 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Shuang Ji of Sacrifice | -0.06 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.06 | 5 | 4 | 1 | |
| Berserker Plate | -0.06 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.06 | 5 | 4 | 1 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | -0.06 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Relentless Outburst | -0.06 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mend Flesh | -0.06 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Jin, Undying Resolve | -0.06 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.06 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.06 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lurid Dreaming | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Obsequious Blow | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lamentation's Toll | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ombreux Chevalier | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beguiling Coup | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Overpowering Defense | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | +0.06 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Searing Truth | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fabled Ruby Fatestone | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coiled Fatestone | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dire Requiem | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | -0.06 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 2 | |
| Reclaim | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tether in Flames | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fireball | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Sunder | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annihilation | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |