Fire AetherwingTier 2
at DTR Regionals
decks
2
(2.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
3-8-1
overall winrate
29.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.1%
avg ELO -4.6 per match
expected value
44.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1186
· median 1186
· range 1151–1221
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
936
Q1 1170
Q3 1394
1685
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 12.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -2.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.9% | -14.5 |
| Water Genbu | 6.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Fire Suited | 5.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.9% | +19.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.4 |
| Slimes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diao Chan | 1.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -1.2 |
| Water Fractal | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Tamer | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
