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Wind SeiryuuTier 1

at DTR Regionals

decks
6 (6.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
41 24-14-3
overall winrate
62.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.5% avg ELO +0.9 per match
expected value
53.3% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.4% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1418 · median 1410 · range 1231–1630 (6 pilots with an ELO rating)
936 Q1 1170 Q3 1394 1685
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Aggro 12.5% 4 4-0-0 100.0% 75.0% 62.7% +8.1
Wind Shadowstrike 10.2% 3 1-1-1 50.0% 50.0% 45.0% -3.7
Water Genbu 6.8% 3 0-3-0 0.0% 28.6% 29.0% -15.7
Fire Suited 5.7% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.1% +12.9
Fire Suzaku 4.5% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 43.4% -6.4
Slimes 4.5% 3 0-3-0 0.0% 28.6% 30.2% -14.8
Fire Crux Mage 3.4% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 47.8% -3.5
Fire Firebloom Burn 3.4% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.7% -11.7
Fire Umbra Guardian 3.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.3% +8.4
Horse and Taxes 3.4% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 47.1% -2.8
Fire Aetherwing 2.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.7% +10.7
Fire Crux Lorraine 2.3% 0
Fire Luxem Assassin 2.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.3% +8.5
Fire Oblation 2.3% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 46.9% -2.9
Water Allies 2.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.8% +6.1
Wind Allies 2.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.5% +15.2
Wind Astra Cleric 2.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 38.2% -18.9
Fire Cinderbloom Combo 1.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.8% +9.3
Fire Crux Merlin 1.1% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 54.2% +3.1
Fire Exia 1.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.8% +6.1
Fire Polkhawk 1.1% 0
Water Aetherwing 1.1% 0
Water Astra Ranger 1.1% 0
Water Crux Mage 1.1% 0
Water Diao Chan 1.1% 0
Water Fractal 1.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 63.3% +21.2
Water Tera Tamer 1.1% 0
Water Umbra Guardian 1.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.0% +11.2
Wind Beast 1.1% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 64.5% +13.9
Wind Cats 1.1% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 64.5% +13.9
Wind Exia 1.1% 0
Wind Lorraine 1.1% 0
Wind Luxem Assassin 1.1% 0
Wind Neos 1.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.6% +9.0
Wind Umbra Diana 1.1% 0
Wind Vanitas 1.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 37.7% -19.7
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 32 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 32 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Horned Knight +1.00 1 0 0
Surreptitious Scheme +1.00 1 0 0
Reclaim +1.00 1 0 0
Resolute Stand -1.00 0 1 0
Aesan Protector -1.00 0 1 0
Annul Spell -1.00 0 1 0
Fire Resonance Bauble +1.00 1 0 0
Candlelight Hourglass +1.00 1 0 0
Dungeon Guide -1.00 0 1 0
Displace +1.00 1 0 0
Veiling Breeze +1.00 1 0 0
Forest Cake -1.00 0 1 0
Stifling Trap -1.00 0 1 0
Expeditious Opening +1.00 1 0 0
Sunblessed Gazelle -1.00 0 1 0
Beseech the Winds +1.00 1 0 0
Winds of Destiny -1.00 0 1 0
Poisonous Breezecap +1.00 1 0 0
Smoke Bombs -1.00 0 1 0
Advent of the Shenju +1.00 1 0 0
Trained Hawk -1.00 0 1 0
Crystallized Destiny -1.00 0 1 0
Fairy Whispers -1.00 0 1 0
Baby Green Slime -1.00 0 1 0
Brisk Windtrotter +1.00 1 0 0
Nullifying Mirror -1.00 0 1 0
Dream Fairy -1.00 0 1 0
Regal Inquisition +1.00 1 0 0
Uther, Illustrious King +1.00 1 0 0
Innervate Agility +1.00 1 0 0
Seiryuu's Command -1.00 0 1 0
Beseeched Fatestone -1.00 0 1 0

JSON: /api/events/32788/archetypes/Wind Seiryuu