Water GenbuTier 1
at DTR Regionals
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 12.5% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 42.5% | -4.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.2% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 39.0% | -8.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.8% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 71.0% | +15.7 |
| Fire Suited | 5.7% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 42.3% | -4.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 72.3% | +21.4 |
| Slimes | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +6.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.4% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 62.6% | +8.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.4% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 30.8% | -14.4 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 63.6% | +13.0 |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.0% | +3.9 |
| Wind Allies | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.6% | +6.3 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.3% | -23.4 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.9% | +12.4 |
| Water Diao Chan | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Tamer | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Wind Beast | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.3 |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.5 |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
The 6 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 21 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 21 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dredging Streams | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Temptation's Facade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Pelagic Fatestone | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resonating Fugue | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Conniving Plans | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shield | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ravishing Finale | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nico, Whiplash Allure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Magebane Lash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |