Fire SuzakuTier 2
at DTR Regionals
decks
4
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
26
10-13-3
overall winrate
44.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.8%
avg ELO -3.8 per match
expected value
46.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1337
· median 1338
· range 1229–1445
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
936
Q1 1170
Q3 1394
1685
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.2% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +1.1 |
| Water Genbu | 6.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 27.7% | -21.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.6% | +6.4 |
| Fire Suited | 5.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.5 |
| Slimes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.0% | +4.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.2% | +3.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.4% | +23.0 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.4% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | -16.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.8% | +10.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.8 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diao Chan | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Tamer | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.4% | -25.0 |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.2% | -20.5 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Suzaku decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
