Fire AggroTier 2
at DTR Regionals
decks
11
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
47
20-23-4
overall winrate
46.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.9%
avg ELO +1.4 per match
expected value
48.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1232
· median 1227
· range 1002–1668
(11 pilots with an ELO rating)
936
Q1 1170
Q3 1394
1685
9% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
36% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.2% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 46.0% | -2.3 |
| Water Genbu | 6.8% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 57.5% | +4.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.8% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 37.3% | -8.1 |
| Fire Suited | 5.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.3% | +17.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.5 |
| Slimes | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.4% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 49.9% | -0.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.4% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 43.3% | -5.0 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.4% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.6% | +3.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.8% | +2.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.9% | +7.6 |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +2.0 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diao Chan | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.7% | -3.7 |
| Water Tera Tamer | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.2% | -20.5 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.5 |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Wind Neos | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.2 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.7% | +4.4 |
Decklists · 11 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Intensified Pyre, Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper, Backup Charger. Losers more often ran: Blazing Bowman, Rending Flames, Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin.
Intensified Pyre
Winning decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
losing decks 1.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Backup Charger
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Dazzling Courtesan
Winning decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
losing decks 2.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Fiery Momentum
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 1.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Clumsy Apprentice
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Blazing Bowman
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Rending Flames
Losing decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
winning decks 2.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin
Losing decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Staggering Strike
Losing decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Sword of Shadows
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Deflecting Edge
Losing decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 84 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 64 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intensified Pyre | +1.00 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Forgelight Blade | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint of Everflame | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Peppered Chef | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Captivating Cutthroat | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flashfire Horse | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sunglory Sentinel | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanguard's Reversal | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Charged Manaplate | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Relic of Dancing Embers | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Surging Bolt | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Furnace Drone | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Swing | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heatwave Generator | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Brackish Lutist | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |