Fire OblationTier 2
at DTR Regionals
decks
2
(2.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
6-6-2
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
34.7%
avg ELO -6.3 per match
expected value
49.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1459
· median 1459
· range 1421–1496
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
936
Q1 1170
Q3 1394
1685
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 12.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.1% | -7.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 36.4% | -10.2 |
| Water Genbu | 6.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 36.4% | -13.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.1% | +2.9 |
| Fire Suited | 5.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.3% | -25.1 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diao Chan | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Tamer | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.4% | -20.2 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Oblation decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
