Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at DTR Regionals
decks
3
(3.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
21
12-5-4
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.6%
avg ELO +2.5 per match
expected value
55.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1406
· median 1348
· range 1184–1685
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
936
Q1 1170
Q3 1394
1685
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 12.5% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 56.7% | +5.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.2% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.4 |
| Water Genbu | 6.8% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 69.2% | +14.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.4 |
| Fire Suited | 5.7% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 65.3% | +9.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.6% | -23.0 |
| Slimes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.7 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.1% | -23.8 |
| Wind Allies | 2.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.3% | +6.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diao Chan | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Tamer | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
