EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Yeti Webcam Weekly 4/25/2024. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Fire Neos Tonoris

58.9%

2.3% share · 4 matches

2.3% share · 4 matches

9.1% share · 15 matches

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#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Fire Crux Lorraine	1	2.3%	4	100.0%	52.6%	62.2%	51.2%	1367	↑ top
2	Fire Neos Tonoris	1	2.3%	4	87.5%	51.2%	58.9%	50.5%	1426	↑ top
3	Fire Luxem Assassin	4	9.1%	15	60.0%	50.6%	56.3%	50.6%	1449	↑ top
4	Fire Crux Merlin	1	2.3%	4	50.0%	50.3%	54.8%	50.5%	1327	—
5	Fire Crux Mage	6	13.6%	15	56.7%	50.3%	52.6%	50.2%	1292	—
6	Fire Aggro	4	9.1%	14	57.1%	50.5%	52.4%	50.2%	1247	—
7	Fire Erupting	2	4.5%	7	71.4%	50.8%	52.1%	50.1%	1321	—
8	Water Lorraine	1	2.3%	4	50.0%	49.5%	52.0%	49.9%	1197	↓ low
9	Wind Allies	3	6.8%	9	55.6%	50.2%	51.3%	50.2%	1321	—
10	Fire Umbra Ranger	4	9.1%	15	53.3%	50.5%	50.5%	50.2%	1179	↓ low
11	Water Arcane	1	2.3%	2	50.0%	50.0%	50.0%	50.0%	1219	↓ low
12	Water Allies	7	15.9%	23	47.8%	49.3%	47.1%	49.5%	1367	↑ top
13	Fire Arcane	5	11.4%	11	36.4%	49.2%	46.9%	49.8%	1262	—
14	Wind Crux Lorraine	1	2.3%	3	33.3%	49.4%	46.2%	49.7%	1353	↑ top
15	Wind Dawn of Ashes	2	4.5%	5	0.0%	48.3%	40.0%	49.4%	1209	↓ low
16	Wind Neos	1	2.3%	3	0.0%	48.9%	40.0%	49.5%	1000	↓ low
17	Water Tera Silvie	2	4.5%	8	12.5%	48.3%	36.7%	49.0%	1110	↓ low