EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Outpost Ghent | Regional.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 2 | 4.3% | 14 | 82.1% | 63.7% | 58.3% | 55.6% | 1399 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Genbu | 1 | 2.1% | 6 | 83.3% | 75.6% | 57.8% | 58.7% | 1385 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 2.1% | 6 | 66.7% | 57.9% | 57.6% | 55.4% | 1366 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Allies | 1 | 2.1% | 6 | 75.0% | 53.5% | 57.3% | 52.8% | 1432 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Seiryuu | 3 | 6.4% | 19 | 73.7% | 57.6% | 57.0% | 52.8% | 1459 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 2.1% | 6 | 66.7% | 50.5% | 52.5% | 50.2% | 1418 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Crux Mage | 5 | 10.6% | 28 | 57.1% | 58.6% | 52.3% | 53.2% | 1253 | — |
| 8 | Fire Suited | 2 | 4.3% | 11 | 50.0% | 58.7% | 51.7% | 53.8% | 1152 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Allies | 4 | 8.5% | 21 | 47.6% | 54.6% | 51.2% | 52.7% | 1220 | — |
| 10 | Water Umbra Guardian | 2 | 4.3% | 12 | 54.2% | 47.3% | 50.9% | 49.0% | 1244 | — |
| 11 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 2.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 58.1% | 50.0% | 51.6% | 1170 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 2.1% | 6 | 50.0% | 51.9% | 48.8% | 49.4% | 1204 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 4 | 8.5% | 24 | 45.8% | 50.3% | 48.6% | 50.0% | 1275 | — |
| 14 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 2.1% | 6 | 50.0% | 45.0% | 48.2% | 46.8% | 1364 | ↑ top |
| 15 | Water Fractal | 3 | 6.4% | 18 | 50.0% | 50.2% | 48.1% | 48.0% | 1234 | — |
| 16 | Fire Slimes | 2 | 4.3% | 12 | 33.3% | 32.6% | 48.0% | 46.1% | 1275 | — |
| 17 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 2.1% | 6 | 41.7% | 48.0% | 46.9% | 48.1% | 1148 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 2.1% | 6 | 50.0% | 47.2% | 46.7% | 46.0% | 1207 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 2.1% | 6 | 41.7% | 50.9% | 46.4% | 48.8% | 1292 | — |
| 20 | Fire Suzaku | 2 | 4.3% | 11 | 36.4% | 39.5% | 45.8% | 45.6% | 1331 | ↑ top |
| 21 | Water Umbra Ciel | 1 | 2.1% | 6 | 41.7% | 44.7% | 45.6% | 45.6% | 1180 | ↓ low |
| 22 | Wind Kongming | 1 | 2.1% | 5 | 20.0% | 43.7% | 45.0% | 48.7% | 1202 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Slimes | 1 | 2.1% | 6 | 25.0% | 35.4% | 43.6% | 44.0% | 1028 | ↓ low |
| 24 | Water Aetherwing | 4 | 8.5% | 21 | 33.3% | 37.8% | 42.7% | 43.5% | 1234 | — |
| 25 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 2.1% | 5 | 10.0% | 34.6% | 41.2% | 44.7% | 1157 | ↓ low |
| 26 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 2.1% | 6 | 8.3% | 34.6% | 38.8% | 42.5% | 1053 | ↓ low |