← Grand Archive Store Championship (14th September 2025)
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Grand Archive Store Championship (14th September 2025)
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.2% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +4.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 17.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.6% | +16.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.5% | +8.1 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 8.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.0 |
| Water Neos | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Water Overlord | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Wind Lorraine | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 23 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 23 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Devastating Blow | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Library Witch | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 |