← Grand Archive Store Championship (14th September 2025)
Water NeosTier 2
at Grand Archive Store Championship (14th September 2025)
decks
1
(4.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
3-5-0
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.4%
avg ELO -0.3 per match
expected value
45.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1161
· median 1161
· range 1161–1161
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1106
Q1 1196
Q3 1383
1571
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.4% | -1.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 17.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.6% | +2.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 8.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Neos decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
