← Grand Archive Store Championship (14th September 2025)
Water Astra RangerTier 2
at Grand Archive Store Championship (14th September 2025)
decks
2
(8.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
3-9-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
31.3%
avg ELO -8.0 per match
expected value
39.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
41.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1295
· median 1295
· range 1126–1465
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1106
Q1 1196
Q3 1383
1571
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.0% | -12.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 17.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.5 |
| Water Neos | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.5 |
| Water Overlord | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.5 |
| Wind Lorraine | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.0% | +4.8 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Astra Ranger decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
