← Grand Archive Store Championship (14th September 2025)
Fire RileTier 1
at Grand Archive Store Championship (14th September 2025)
decks
12
(52.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
49
25-20-4
overall winrate
55.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.5%
avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
53.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1319
· median 1327
· range 1131–1571
(12 pilots with an ELO rating)
1106
Q1 1196
Q3 1383
1571
17% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suzaku | 17.4% | 8 | 6-2-0 | 75.0% | 66.7% | 68.6% | +8.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.0% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -4.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.7% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 44.7% | -3.1 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 8.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.0% | +12.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.7% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 47.4% | -1.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.8% | +4.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.3% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.3 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.6% | -6.1 |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -1.0 |
| Water Neos | 4.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.6% | +1.2 |
| Water Overlord | 4.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.6% | +1.2 |
| Wind Lorraine | 4.3% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 37.3% | -9.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
Decklists · 12 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 15 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Evercurrent Raider, Cremation Ritual, Stalwart Shieldmate. Losers more often ran: Fiery Interference, Demolition, Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple.
Evercurrent Raider
Winning decks ran 3.1
copies on average,
losing decks 2.5.
Of 15 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 6.
Cremation Ritual
Winning decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
losing decks 2.1.
Of 15 mirrors: the winner ran more in
8, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 4.
Stalwart Shieldmate
Winning decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
losing decks 2.8.
Of 15 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 7.
Fluffy Shopkeep
Winning decks ran 2.6
copies on average,
losing decks 2.1.
Of 15 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 5.
Sudden Steel
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 15 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 9.
Library Witch
Winning decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 15 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 9.
Fiery Interference
Losing decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 15 mirrors: the loser ran more in
8, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 5.
Demolition
Losing decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 15 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 9.
Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple
Losing decks ran 0.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 15 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 10.
Vermilion Decree
Losing decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 15 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 10.
Searing Truth
Losing decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 15 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 10.
Three of Hearts
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 15 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 10.
Show all 126 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 106 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiery Interference | -0.40 | 2 | 8 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.33 | 7 | 2 | 6 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.33 | 8 | 3 | 4 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.27 | 6 | 2 | 7 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.27 | 7 | 3 | 3 | |
| Demolition | -0.27 | 1 | 5 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.27 | 5 | 1 | 1 | |
| Library Witch | +0.27 | 5 | 1 | 1 | |
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | -0.20 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | -0.20 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Searing Truth | -0.20 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -0.20 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.20 | 6 | 3 | 6 | |
| Peppered Chef | -0.20 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.20 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -0.20 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | -0.20 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.20 | 6 | 3 | 6 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.20 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | -0.20 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.20 | 2 | 5 | 1 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.20 | 4 | 1 | 10 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -0.20 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -0.20 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.20 | 3 | 6 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | -0.20 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.20 | 5 | 2 | 6 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | -0.20 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Fabled Ruby Fatestone | -0.20 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -0.20 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.20 | 6 | 3 | 2 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.20 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.13 | 6 | 4 | 5 | |
| Crux Sight | -0.13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.13 | 6 | 8 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.13 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.13 | 4 | 2 | 8 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.13 | 3 | 1 | 11 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.13 | 4 | 2 | 8 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.13 | 4 | 6 | 4 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.13 | 3 | 5 | 3 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.13 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -0.13 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | -0.13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -0.13 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | -0.13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -0.13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | +0.13 | 4 | 2 | 2 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | +0.13 | 4 | 2 | 2 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | +0.13 | 4 | 2 | 2 | |
| Fireball | +0.13 | 4 | 2 | 2 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arondight, Azure Blade | +0.07 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| Liminal Guide | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 12 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 12 | |
| Intensified Pyre | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | +0.07 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.07 | 4 | 3 | 6 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +0.07 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| Votive Runeblade | +0.07 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | +0.07 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 12 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.07 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -0.07 | 4 | 5 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.07 | 6 | 5 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.07 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.07 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.07 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.07 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |
| Blazing Lunge | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | -0.07 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | -0.07 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.07 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +0.07 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tether in Flames | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastsoul Visage | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Sparks | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Searing Rebuke | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.07 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 13 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 6 | 6 | 2 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.00 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 1 | |
| Siphoning Fractal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lamentation's Toll | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ombreux Chevalier | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Overwhelming Swing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Soutirer Vortex | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Regret | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beguiling Coup | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Insight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 5 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |