← Grand Archive Store Championship (14th September 2025)
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at Grand Archive Store Championship (14th September 2025)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.2% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 52.6% | +1.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 17.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 8.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.3 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 9 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 9 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleansing Reunion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |