← Grand Archive Store Championship (14th September 2025)
Fire SuzakuTier 2
at Grand Archive Store Championship (14th September 2025)
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.2% | 8 | 2-6-0 | 25.0% | 33.3% | 31.4% | -8.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.4% | -16.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.4 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -17.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.7% | -12.8 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -0.8 |
| Water Neos | 4.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -2.5 |
| Water Overlord | 4.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -2.5 |
| Wind Lorraine | 4.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 38.5% | -11.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 27 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 27 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March Hare, Mottled Host | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rile the Abyss | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |