← Grand Archive Store Championship (14th September 2025)
Water AlliesTier 1
at Grand Archive Store Championship (14th September 2025)
decks
1
(4.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
6-3-0
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
61.7%
avg ELO +5.4 per match
expected value
52.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1335
· median 1335
· range 1335–1335
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1106
Q1 1196
Q3 1383
1571
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +1.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 17.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +0.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 8.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
