Fire AggroTier 1
at Regionals
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.9% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +1.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.1% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 32.4% | -11.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.9% | -2.3 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.5% | -6.4 |
| Water Genbu | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.8 |
| Fire Exia | 3.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 38.8% | -8.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +12.9 |
| Fire Diao Chan | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.6% | +20.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.4 |
| Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.7% | +8.3 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.5% | +2.4 |
| Water Fractal | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 60.4% | +10.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.9 |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.6 |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 48 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 48 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under Fire | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Forgelight Blade | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint of Everflame | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blazing Bowman | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Strapping Conscript | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 |