Water AetherwingTier 3
at Regionals
decks
1
(1.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-3-1
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.3%
avg ELO +1.2 per match
expected value
44.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1226
· median 1226
· range 1226–1226
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1001
Q1 1184
Q3 1387
1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Fire Exia | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Diao Chan | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.4% | -5.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +4.0 |
| Water Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.0 |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Aetherwing decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
