Fire SuzakuTier 2
at Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 11.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.5% | +6.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.4% | -4.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.1% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 37.5% | -9.3 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Water Genbu | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.6% | +23.3 |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Diao Chan | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Water Fractal | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 30 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March Hare, Mottled Host | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |