Water GenbuTier 1
at Regionals
decks
3
(4.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
10-6-2
overall winrate
61.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.1%
avg ELO -0.8 per match
expected value
52.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1487
· median 1494
· range 1407–1560
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1001
Q1 1184
Q3 1387
1656
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.6% | +2.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.5% | +2.4 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 6.5% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.8% | -3.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.4% | -23.3 |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.1 |
| Fire Exia | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Diao Chan | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.8% | -6.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.7 |
| Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.8% | -21.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.7% | +7.4 |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
