Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
at Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.3% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 67.6% | +11.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.9% | -3.9 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 6.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.7% | -7.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.6% | +4.2 |
| Water Genbu | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.0% | -7.6 |
| Fire Exia | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Diao Chan | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Water Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 36.8% | -12.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 45 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 45 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit's Blessing | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| The Looking Glass | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Academy Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arondight, Azure Blade | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Votive Runeblade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |