Water Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Regionals
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.9% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 49.7% | -0.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 60.3% | +7.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.4% | -5.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.1 |
| Water Genbu | 4.8% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.2% | +3.9 |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.6% | +23.3 |
| Fire Exia | 3.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.0% | +8.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Diao Chan | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +1.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.0% | +8.7 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 20 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dredging Streams | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Obsequious Blow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shieldbearer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tide Diviner | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mire Reparation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ombreux Chevalier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shield | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beguiling Coup | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |