← CakeTCG Utrecht DTR Regional
Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
at CakeTCG Utrecht DTR Regional
decks
4
(11.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
24
13-6-5
overall winrate
64.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
63.3%
avg ELO +5.0 per match
expected value
55.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1308
· median 1319
· range 1193–1402
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1086
Q1 1234
Q3 1423
1520
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 11.4% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 58.9% | +6.6 |
| Water Fractal | 11.4% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 58.0% | +5.1 |
| Wind Allies | 8.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 51.2% | +0.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.5% | +9.1 |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.9% | +20.6 |
| Slimes | 2.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -1.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 47.0% | -2.8 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.9% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.2% | +5.0 |
| Water Kongming | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +3.2 |
