← CakeTCG Utrecht DTR Regional
Water AlliesTier 1
at CakeTCG Utrecht DTR Regional
decks
2
(5.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
6-4-1
overall winrate
59.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.5%
avg ELO +1.1 per match
expected value
52.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1476
· median 1476
· range 1432–1520
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1086
Q1 1234
Q3 1423
1520
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 11.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 40.5% | -9.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 11.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 11.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 8.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.5% | +1.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Slimes | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.8 |
| Water Genbu | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.0% | -11.6 |
