← CakeTCG Utrecht DTR Regional
Fire Firebloom BurnTier 1
at CakeTCG Utrecht DTR Regional
decks
4
(11.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
23
13-9-1
overall winrate
58.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
67.7%
avg ELO +6.6 per match
expected value
53.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1260
· median 1236
· range 1145–1421
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1086
Q1 1234
Q3 1423
1520
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 11.4% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 41.1% | -6.6 |
| Water Fractal | 11.4% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 61.7% | +7.5 |
| Wind Allies | 8.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.0% | +22.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.3% | +19.7 |
| Water Allies | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.0% | +22.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.6% | -6.1 |
| Slimes | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 50.3% | +0.2 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Water Genbu | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.1 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 2.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.2% | +16.5 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 53.9% | +2.9 |
