← CakeTCG Utrecht DTR Regional
Fire ExiaTier 2
at CakeTCG Utrecht DTR Regional
decks
1
(2.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-4-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
36.2%
avg ELO -7.3 per match
expected value
41.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
39.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1176
· median 1176
· range 1176–1176
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1086
Q1 1234
Q3 1423
1520
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 11.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 11.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.0% | -22.4 |
| Water Fractal | 11.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.8% | -15.6 |
| Wind Allies | 8.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.6 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Wind Ciel | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Exia decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
