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Water FractalTier 2
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Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 11.4% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 42.0% | -5.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 11.4% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 38.3% | -7.5 |
| Wind Allies | 8.6% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 40.2% | -7.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.6% | +25.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.2% | +15.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Water Genbu | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.5% | +21.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 17 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 17 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Art of War | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 |