← 松江貓腳印 DTR店家冠軍賽

Fire Crux LorraineTier 1

at 松江貓腳印 DTR店家冠軍賽

decks
5 (11.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
28 16-10-2
overall winrate
60.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.4% avg ELO +0.5 per match
expected value
55.8% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.1% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1381 · median 1414 · range 1320–1426 (5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1075 Q1 1245 Q3 1412 1550
60% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Allies 11.6% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 57.1% +6.8
Wind Shadowstrike 11.6% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 55.6% +4.2
Water Genbu 7.0% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 44.4% -5.3
Wind Crux Lorraine 7.0% 7 3-3-1 50.0% 50.0% 44.1% -3.0
Fire Crux Mage 4.7% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 43.9% -5.9
Fire Suzaku 4.7% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.3% +6.9
Fire Umbra Guardian 4.7% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 54.1% +3.1
Slimes 4.7% 0
Water Aetherwing 4.7% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 68.3% +17.5
Water Astra Ranger 4.7% 0
Fire Aggro 2.3% 0
Fire Exia 2.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.5% +5.6
Fire Firebloom Burn 2.3% 0
Fire Suited 2.3% 0
Fire Tera Cleric 2.3% 0
Water Ravishing Mill 2.3% 0
Water Tera Cleric 2.3% 0
Wind Astra Cleric 2.3% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 54.8% +4.6
Wind Luxem Zander 2.3% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 38.1% -11.4
Wind Seiryuu 2.3% 0
Wind Wakeup Combo 2.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.7% -11.6
Decklists · 5 from this event

The 5 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 40 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 40 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin +1.00 1 0 0
Staggering Strike -1.00 0 1 0
Viridian Protective Trinket +1.00 1 0 0
Spirit Blade: Dispersion +1.00 1 0 0
Lorraine, Spirit Ruler +1.00 1 0 0
Liminal Guide +1.00 1 0 0
Reckoning's Wake +1.00 1 0 0
Sword of Shadows +1.00 1 0 0
Grand Crusader's Ring -1.00 0 1 0
Hone by Fire +1.00 1 0 0
Sword of Seeking -1.00 0 1 0
Honorable Vanguard -1.00 0 1 0
Three of Hearts +1.00 1 0 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +1.00 1 0 0
Fluffy Shopkeep -1.00 0 1 0
Devastating Blow -1.00 0 1 0
Demolition -1.00 0 1 0
Smoke Bombs -1.00 0 1 0
Backup Charger +1.00 1 0 0
Flame Sweep -1.00 0 1 0
Inert Sword +1.00 1 0 0
Crux Sight -1.00 0 1 0
Evercurrent Raider -1.00 0 1 0
Cremation Ritual -1.00 0 1 0
Ornamental Greatsword -1.00 0 1 0
Turbo Charge +1.00 1 0 0
Crystallized Destiny -1.00 0 1 0
Sword Saint's Vow +1.00 1 0 0
Varuckan Acolyte +1.00 1 0 0
The Looking Glass +1.00 1 0 0
Immolation Trap -1.00 0 1 0
Spirit Blade: Ascension -1.00 0 1 0
Incapacitate -1.00 0 1 0
Fiery Interference -1.00 0 1 0
Rending Flames +1.00 1 0 0
Regal Inquisition -1.00 0 1 0
Prismatic Edge -1.00 0 1 0
Tempered Steel +1.00 1 0 0
Lorraine, Crux Knight -1.00 0 1 0
Library Witch -1.00 0 1 0

JSON: /api/events/35446/archetypes/Fire Crux Lorraine