Water AlliesTier 2
at 松江貓腳印 DTR店家冠軍賽
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 11.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.9% | -6.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.6% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 36.3% | -8.8 |
| Water Genbu | 7.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.3% | +7.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.8% | -13.6 |
| Slimes | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.6% | -10.9 |
| Fire Exia | 2.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.1% | +3.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.4 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -2.4 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.7% | -8.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 70 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 70 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Halocline Scout | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aquifer Seneschal | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sun Ce, Weaponsmaster | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Manxome Armoire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Inspiring Call | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Expulsion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lily, Marine Castellan | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vigil Rempart | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jueying, Shadowmare | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drifting Rogue | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Hired Blade | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nico, Rapture's Embrace | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mandate of Honor | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ravishing Finale | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nico, Whiplash Allure | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Scarcity | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Magebane Lash | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Overpowering Defense | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |