Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at 松江貓腳印 DTR店家冠軍賽
decks
2
(4.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
11-4-1
overall winrate
71.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
66.6%
avg ELO +6.6 per match
expected value
58.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
57.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1384
· median 1384
· range 1359–1409
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1075
Q1 1245
Q3 1412
1550
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 11.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.9% | -3.1 |
| Water Allies | 11.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.2% | +13.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.6% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 69.6% | +12.5 |
| Water Genbu | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 4.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.1 |
| Fire Exia | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +14.0 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.6% | -18.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.2 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
