← Distorted Reflections Store Championships
Fire SuitedTier 1
at Distorted Reflections Store Championships
decks
2
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
5-4-0
overall winrate
55.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.8%
avg ELO -0.1 per match
expected value
54.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1317
· median 1317
· range 1203–1432
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1194
Q3 1398
1624
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 16.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.7% | +7.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 16.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +16.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.2% | -7.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.1 |
| Fire Kongming | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.8% | -25.9 |
