← Distorted Reflections Store Championships
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Distorted Reflections Store Championships
decks
1
(5.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-2-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
64.4%
avg ELO +8.3 per match
expected value
51.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1221
· median 1221
· range 1221–1221
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1194
Q3 1398
1624
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 16.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.8% | +25.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 16.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +2.5 |
| Fire Suited | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.2% | +25.9 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.9% | -4.9 |
| Fire Exia | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
