← Distorted Reflections Store Championships
Water Astra RangerTier 2
at Distorted Reflections Store Championships
decks
2
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
2-6-1
overall winrate
27.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.3%
avg ELO -4.9 per match
expected value
43.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1251
· median 1251
· range 1191–1311
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1194
Q3 1398
1624
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 16.7% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 41.5% | -5.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 16.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.4 |
| Fire Suited | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -16.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 5.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +1.8 |
| Fire Kongming | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
