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Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
at Happyland Store Championship
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 12.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.9% | -3.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.8% | +14.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.9% | -6.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.4% | -5.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -1.3 |
| Fire Byakko | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.3% | -5.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Hasty Messenger. Losers more often ran: Sword of Seeking, Staggering Strike.
Show all 29 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Duplicitous Replication | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |