← Happyland Store Championship

Fire Crux MageTier 1

at Happyland Store Championship

decks
2 (6.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7 6-0-1
overall winrate
92.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
66.6% avg ELO +8.4 per match
expected value
62.0% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.7% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1500 · median 1500 · range 1437–1563 (2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1094 Q1 1249 Q3 1461 1685
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Crux Lorraine 19.4% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 57.1% +6.8
Water Genbu 12.9% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 50.6% +0.5
Wind Seiryuu 9.7% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 64.3% +22.9
Fire Aggro 6.5% 0
Fire Firebloom Burn 6.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 52.4% +3.9
Fire Suzaku 6.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.6% +17.0
Water Aetherwing 6.5% 0
Wind Wakeup Combo 6.5% 0
Fire Byakko 3.2% 0
Fire Suited 3.2% 0
Water Crux Lorraine 3.2% 0
Water Fractal 3.2% 0
Wind Astra Cleric 3.2% 0
Wind Shadowstrike 3.2% 0
Decklists · 2 from this event

The 2 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 21 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 21 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Resolute Stand -1.00 0 1 0
Duplicitous Replication -1.00 0 1 0
Nimue, Cursed Touch +1.00 1 0 0
Undying Dreams -1.00 0 1 0
Smoke Out +1.00 1 0 0
Yuan Shao, Crown General -1.00 0 1 0
Coronation Ceremony -1.00 0 1 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +1.00 1 0 0
Deflecting Edge +1.00 1 0 0
Bandage Wound +1.00 1 0 0
Nullifying Lantern -1.00 0 1 0
Crux Sight -1.00 0 1 0
Stalwart Shieldmate -1.00 0 1 0
Sudden Steel +1.00 1 0 0
Evercurrent Raider +1.00 1 0 0
Cremation Ritual -1.00 0 1 0
Hasty Messenger -1.00 0 1 0
Restorative Flame +1.00 1 0 0
Crystallized Destiny +1.00 1 0 0
Spirit Blade: Ascension +1.00 1 0 0
Rending Flames -1.00 0 1 0

JSON: /api/events/36655/archetypes/Fire Crux Mage