← Happyland Store Championship
Water AetherwingTier 2
at Happyland Store Championship
decks
2
(6.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
2
0-2-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
38.1%
avg ELO -11.4 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1324
· median 1324
· range 1243–1405
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1094
Q1 1249
Q3 1461
1685
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 19.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 12.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
