← FTG Distorted Reflections Regional Championship
Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at FTG Distorted Reflections Regional Championship
decks
2
(5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
3-7-1
overall winrate
31.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
34.7%
avg ELO -6.7 per match
expected value
43.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1381
· median 1381
· range 1329–1432
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
978
Q1 1158
Q3 1357
1624
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 48.4% | -1.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.4% | -21.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.7 |
| Water Genbu | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Wind Allies | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.9% | -20.9 |
| Water Allies | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Triskit | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane Rai | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Wind Diana | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.4% | +19.9 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
