← FTG Distorted Reflections Regional Championship
Water GenbuTier 2
at FTG Distorted Reflections Regional Championship
decks
2
(5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
5-6-0
overall winrate
45.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.1%
avg ELO +0.9 per match
expected value
48.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1187
· median 1187
· range 1055–1318
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
978
Q1 1158
Q3 1357
1624
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.7% | -5.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.5% | +5.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.5% | -5.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Fire Exia | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Water Neos | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Triskit | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane Rai | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
