← FTG Distorted Reflections Regional Championship
Water AetherwingTier 1
at FTG Distorted Reflections Regional Championship
decks
3
(7.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
11-4-3
overall winrate
69.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
72.4%
avg ELO +8.8 per match
expected value
55.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
57.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1284
· median 1226
· range 1183–1445
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
978
Q1 1158
Q3 1357
1624
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 70.4% | +15.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.4% | -4.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.6% | +21.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | -2.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.0% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +1.3 |
| Water Genbu | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.2% | +21.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.3% | +22.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.5 |
| Fire Exia | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
| Water Allies | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.1% | +21.0 |
| Water Neos | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.8 |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Triskit | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane Rai | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 2.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
