← FTG Distorted Reflections Regional Championship
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at FTG Distorted Reflections Regional Championship
decks
3
(7.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
17
6-11-0
overall winrate
35.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.7%
avg ELO -1.7 per match
expected value
47.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1164
· median 1155
· range 989–1349
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
978
Q1 1158
Q3 1357
1624
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
67% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.6% | +4.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Water Genbu | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 64.3% | +10.7 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.4 |
| Fire Exia | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.4 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.2% | -6.1 |
| Water Neos | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -8.9 |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Triskit | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane Rai | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.8% | +2.9 |
| Wind Diana | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 2.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 46.4% | -3.4 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -19.6 |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
