← FTG Distorted Reflections Regional Championship
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at FTG Distorted Reflections Regional Championship
decks
3
(7.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
6-8-1
overall winrate
43.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.2%
avg ELO -3.6 per match
expected value
45.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1287
· median 1340
· range 1144–1378
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
978
Q1 1158
Q3 1357
1624
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 5 | 0-4-1 | 10.0% | 27.8% | 33.0% | -9.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.0% | -24.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.2 |
| Wind Allies | 5.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +2.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.3 |
| Water Triskit | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.2 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Wind Arcane Rai | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.3 |
| Wind Exia | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
