← tabletop.me Distorted Reflections Regional Championships
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at tabletop.me Distorted Reflections Regional Championships
decks
6
(10.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
2-6-2
overall winrate
30.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
36.2%
avg ELO -6.2 per match
expected value
44.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1194
· median 1184
· range 1140–1313
(6 pilots with an ELO rating)
1058
Q1 1163
Q3 1313
1493
17% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Slimes | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +1.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.1% | -14.3 |
| Fire Exia | 3.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -3.1 |
| Fire Suited | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.1 |
| Fire Astra Diana | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
