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Water AetherwingTier 1
at tabletop.me Distorted Reflections Regional Championships
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.7 |
| Slimes | 7.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.0% | +13.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.0% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 41.3% | -5.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.5 |
| Fire Exia | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.4 |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Fire Astra Diana | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 15 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 15 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chained Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dissuading Aether | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Rain | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drown in Aether | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Manabolt Convergence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mana's Cascade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mad Hatter, Morose Heritor | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |