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Fire SuzakuTier 2
at tabletop.me Distorted Reflections Regional Championships
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 48.5% | -1.4 |
| Slimes | 7.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -12.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -3.3 |
| Fire Suited | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.6% | -1.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Fire Astra Diana | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 36 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 36 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vermilion Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fatestone of Revelations | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rousing Rattle Drum | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Relic of Dancing Embers | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Surging Bolt | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Direwolf Alpha | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Band of Burning Verdict | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fated Keepsake | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lavaplume Fatestone | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incandescent Reliquary | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |