← tabletop.me Distorted Reflections Regional Championships
Water Tera MageTier 2
at tabletop.me Distorted Reflections Regional Championships
decks
2
(3.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-1-3
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.0%
avg ELO +3.7 per match
expected value
53.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1283
· median 1283
· range 1200–1367
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1058
Q1 1163
Q3 1313
1493
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 5.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.9 |
| Fire Exia | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Diana | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Water Genbu | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
