EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Round Table Games Regionals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Aetherwing | 5 | 15.2% | 23 | 71.7% | 66.0% | 57.7% | 56.8% | 1320 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Slimes | 1 | 3.0% | 6 | 66.7% | 58.6% | 54.1% | 53.2% | 1340 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Tera Cleric | 1 | 3.0% | 6 | 50.0% | 46.1% | 53.1% | 50.8% | 1212 | — |
| 4 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 2 | 6.1% | 12 | 62.5% | 53.7% | 51.9% | 50.4% | 1328 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 3.0% | 6 | 75.0% | 51.1% | 51.9% | 47.6% | 1510 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 3.0% | 6 | 58.3% | 60.2% | 51.7% | 53.5% | 1156 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Arcane | 1 | 3.0% | 6 | 66.7% | 60.3% | 51.1% | 51.9% | 1211 | — |
| 8 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 2 | 6.1% | 11 | 54.5% | 58.7% | 50.7% | 53.8% | 1156 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Chess | 1 | 3.0% | 6 | 50.0% | 48.6% | 50.0% | 49.5% | 1187 | — |
| 10 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 3.0% | 6 | 50.0% | 48.6% | 50.0% | 49.5% | 1187 | — |
| 11 | Water Fractal | 3 | 9.1% | 15 | 63.3% | 53.7% | 49.5% | 46.4% | 1379 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Slimes | 1 | 3.0% | 7 | 57.1% | 51.4% | 49.1% | 48.3% | 1199 | — |
| 13 | Wind Astra Cleric | 2 | 6.1% | 10 | 55.0% | 54.7% | 48.0% | 49.4% | 1229 | — |
| 14 | Wind Byakko | 1 | 3.0% | 5 | 30.0% | 38.7% | 47.5% | 47.5% | 1167 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 6.1% | 11 | 27.3% | 45.4% | 47.2% | 50.3% | 1094 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 3.0% | 7 | 57.1% | 58.3% | 47.1% | 49.0% | 1123 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Water Genbu | 1 | 3.0% | 6 | 41.7% | 47.8% | 45.1% | 47.6% | 1253 | — |
| 18 | Water Umbra Alice | 1 | 3.0% | 5 | 20.0% | 31.4% | 45.0% | 43.9% | 1131 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Wind Arcane | 2 | 6.1% | 11 | 31.8% | 41.0% | 43.0% | 44.7% | 1175 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 3.0% | 5 | 10.0% | 29.5% | 41.7% | 42.4% | 1166 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Fire Crux Merlin | 2 | 6.1% | 9 | 11.1% | 27.8% | 41.2% | 42.1% | 1100 | ↓ low |
| 22 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 3.0% | 5 | 20.0% | 35.5% | 40.7% | 41.8% | 1125 | ↓ low |