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Fire SuitedTier 2
at PTM Regional - Reaper Game Store
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 10.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 59.4% | +7.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.4% | -7.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.6% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 31.6% | -11.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +2.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -12.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.3% | -4.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.8 |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Nico | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -16.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.8 |
| Wind Triskit | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy Swing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rouge, Ace of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mortal Ambition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Two of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Noire, Ace of Spades | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Straight Flare | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trump Set | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Spades | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |